September 20, 2016 by stuartnoel - 0 comments

Economic Theory explained by football – 18. The Resource Curse

The resource curse, also known as the paradox of plenty refers in footballing terms to the situation that exists at the highest level of the professional game where the clubs have such an abundance of players that they do not know what to do with them. It is a theory that is significantly harder to find in the Non-League game, although there are classic examples.

The idea that having too many resources might be more of an economic curse than a blessing was first floated by Arbroath fan Richard Auty in the mid-1990s after seeing the Rangers win nine consecutive Scottish Premier League titles. He saw that despite all of the resources at hand both on and off the pitch, rivals Celtic simply couldn’t break Rangers grip on the dominance in the domestic game. His theory on the Resource Curse has since been used to explain how clubs such as Manchester City, Leeds United, Southampton and current Premier League Champions, Leicester City dropped like a stone down the leagues before they realised it wasn’t all about hoarding the most expense resources being wasted through unused.

A study by Lincoln Moorland Railways fans Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner concluded that there was a strong correlation between a plethora of natural resources and poor economic growth. Whilst their work may have on the outside focused on some countries in Africa where precious metals were being mined yet economic indicators suggest that they are some of the poorest countries in the world, they also could have been talking about Chelsea’s 2015/16 season.

The Blues were the envy of many at the start of last season. Premier League champions a few months earlier delivered by The Special One and over £68 million worth of new signings to join in the training sessions at the state of the art facilities in Cobham. As well as the 32 man First Team Squad, the club had a further 30-odd players out on loan during the season. They had some of the biggest and best resources in world football yet there are few who saw them lose 9 of their first 16 games and exit from the Champions League in the first knock-out stage. Mourinho paid with his job, whilst the rest of English football rolled around on the floor in laughter. That is the Recourse Curse in full effect – despite an endless stream of Russian Roubles, they couldn’t convert them into success on the field.

And that, ladies and gentlemen is why you could have all the best youngsters in the world, the best training facilities in the land and arguably the best manager yet you still find yourself kidding yourself that it is “all about the Europa League” or even that this is a season of “consolidation’. The Resource Curse is alive and kicking in English football, and one that will get stronger and stronger as each billion pound TV deal season passes.

August 24, 2016 by stuartnoel - 2 Comments

Will Fulham win the sack race this season?

Mike Miles reports on a trip down to Craven Cottage.

I may support West Ham, but I love going to Craven Cottage. Not least because it is a 45-minute walk from my front door, most of it along the banks of the Thames, with some very enticing pubs en route.

Fulham 2 Cardiff City 2 – Craven Cottage – Saturday 20th August 2016
Fulham were the last team to have standing accommodation in the Premier League, as Craven Cottage included terraces as late as the 2001/02 season-eight years after the Taylor Report outlawed terraces at that level. I have a fond memory of seeing Freddie Kanoute score a winner for West Ham whilst standing at the Putney End.

As with terracing, the statue of Michael Jackson, like its subject, is alas no longer with us. The original Craven Cottage site was covered in woodlands, and allegedly, one plane tree survives today in a corner of the Putney End, the sole tree to be found in any senior British senior football stadium. Not the least of Craven Cottage’s continuing charms is the Johnny Haynes Stand. This wonderful structure is the oldest remaining football stand in the Football League, originally built in 1905, designed by Archibald Leitch, and is a Grade 2 listed building. It even features the original wooden seating. You may not be as comfortable as in say The Emirates, but you are sitting on history.

Alas on the pitch Fulham have been going through tough times. They were relegated from the Premiership in May 2014 after a season when they went through a bewildering number of managers. Felix Magath started the 2014/15 season in charge, with the Cottagers widely expected to be challenging for promotion. The sad reality was one point gained from seven games. Magath was sacked in September 2014, with Kit Symons appointed as Caretaker Manager. Former players slated Magath. My favourite has to be Brede Hangeland, who claimed Magath ignored doctors and instructed him to place a block of cheese on his thigh in order to get him fit for the next match.

Now Slavisa Jokanovic is charge, though it appears the term should be used loosely. He has been venting his frustration at Fulham’s transfer policy, claiming he has no role in buying players since that responsibility rests with the club’s data analyst, Craig Kline, ominously, a friend of the clubs’ owner. He told BBC Radio “The last decision (on signing players) is in the hands of this man. It is not my business….It is in the hands of people who believe they’re more prepared.”

Alas the current team show few signs of matching their historical surroundings. This was their fourth game in this season’s Championship and although unbeaten they had to rely on a 86th minute goal from Kevin McDonald to salvage a point.

Skipper Scott Parker was still doing his tidy thing in midfield , not surprisingly the only player to start here who featured on the day Fulham were relegated at Stoke two seasons ago. The 40-goal partnership of Ross McCormack and Moussa Dembele departed in the summer, and Jokanovic knows he needs to replace them.

There were some glimpses of quality but the new players and many youngsters have yet to gel enough to threaten a realistic promotion drive. This division is no place for rookies to learn their game. Enforced substitute Ryan Sessegnon’s (useless fact: the first player born in 2000 to score in the Championship) close-range goal capped what had been a dominant first-half display from the hosts. But two goals in six minutes early in the second half turned the game Cardiff’s way, as Joe Ralls’ 25-yard half volley was followed by Anthony Pilkington’s curling effort. Peter Whittingham was denied a third for Cardiff by the Fulham crossbar direct from a free kick. It was difficult to believe that the only goals Cardiff had scored this season had come courtesy of Blackburn Rovers’ unfortunate defender Shane Duffy. Concerted home pressure was finally rewarded when new signing Mcdonald drove home a first goal for his new club.

I would willingly make that walk to the Cottage again but I have a feeling it will be to see a Fulham team playing under yet another manager.

August 21, 2016 by stuartnoel - 0 comments

Economic Theory explained by football – 17. Endogenous Growth Theory

In the seventh of his deep-thinking articles, our in house Economist Stuart Fuller tries to explain famous Economic theories by using football as the model. Today, he explains why we don’t need any outside investment at Lewes FC to be successful in the long-term….probably.

It’s been a long-held belief that growth of any business or economy is reliant on exogenous, or external, factors such as cash or government policy. Endogenous growth theory holds that investment in human capital (players), innovation (new training methods), and knowledge (player analysis) are actually significantly bigger contributors to economic growth than influxes of external investment (TV money). The theory also focuses on positive externalities (positive performances by our national sides) and spill-over effects of a knowledge-based economy (social media) which will lead to economic development.

Not convinced? OK, let’s look at two examples from last season. Leicester City certainly weren’t the biggest spenders in pre-season, nor did they have the “best” manager. Yet they ended up winning the Premier League. Why? Partly because the biggest challengers went into meltdown but also because they invested internally into player recruitment, new training methods and avoided injuries and suspensions to key players. As the season progressed, the squad believed that they could upset the 5000/1 odds on winning their first ever Premier League. With a manager at the helm who knew example how to get the best out of the squad, without resorting to upsetting the balance in the squad by spending money, they epitomised the theory of endogenous growth perfectly.

Closer to home we all admired the superb season that Bognor Regis Town had, reaching the Play-offs and the semi-finals of the FA Trophy where they narrowly lost to Grimsby Town. They played more games last season than any other Ryman League side, yet only used 26 players in the process. Granted, that requires some serious luck with injuries but it also reflects on the skill of their manager, Jamie Howell, in knowing how to cut his cloth according to the budget he was given at the start of the season. Whilst they would have earnt around £35,000 in prize money from their run in the FA Trophy, the timing of that cash would have not allowed Jamie to spend much of it, thus relying on the internal investment to carry his team forward.

Football today is awash with cash at the top level, especially now that the TV deals have been renegotiated. At the level Lewes play at we will see little of that cash and so it is up to us to generate our own revenues, not relying on someone else to “bail us out”. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is The Theory of Endogenous Growth in a nutshell – success comes from within rather than with the help of external investment.

August 21, 2016 by stuartnoel - 0 comments

Bulls create FA Cup history in the sun Shine

The was the top FA Cup tie in the Preliminary Round. That was undisputed as AFC Mansfield were first in alphabetical order. It was also another first for AFC Mansfield as this would be their first ever home tie in the world’s oldest cup competition. In fact, this would only be their second ever FA Cup tie, after last season when they lost 2-1 to today’s visitors, The Shiners from South Normanton.

It has only been four years since they were formed as a community club by a splinter group of Mansfield Town directors, who were unhappy with the direct that the Stags were going. They found a home at The Forest Town Arena, a cycling track 2.5 miles north-east of Field Mill. Since then they have won promotion twice, taking their place in the Northern Counties East Premier League, or step 5 of the Non-League pyramid to me and you and reached the 5th round of the FA Vase two years ago.

Whilst The Bulls will probably never gain the same profile as other “protest” clubs such as FC United of Manchester or AFC Wimbledon, their progress so far has to be admired. Funds are tight in the grass-roots of the game but focusing on the community aspect will win them friends and enable them to find their level. Oh, and their manager is called Rudy Funk which makes them a winner in my book.

I’d manage to escape from Centerparcs for a couple of hours, leaving the Fuller girls high up some trees, tied very tight to some ropes. A few weeks ago when I looked at potential “diversions” the one that stood out was a potential tie at Clipstone. Alas, they lost at Brigg Town and I had a moment of panic where I thought I may have to spend the whole afternoon in some sub-tropical biosphere carnage, without a game within a “reasonable” distance. By reasonable I had been told I could go AWOL for three hours maximum. “Why don’t you go to AFC Mansfield?” Suggested Lolly. “What? Why do you say that? I scoffed, after all what does she really know about the East Midlands Non-League scene? “Well, they are the first game on the list and Mansfield is just *there* on the map”. Whilst I didn’t let on, she was onto something. Clever girl my eldest daughter sometimes.

So at 2.30pm I headed out of Centerparcs, passing the Workshop Van Hire Stadium home to Clipstone FC, the headstocks of the former Clipstone Colliery that dominate the skyline, a boarded up pub called The Olympic Spirit and a pet grooming parlour (I think) called Doggy Style. A couple of miles down the B6030, take a left and there was the Forest Town Welfare with the Arena behind it.

Within two minutes I had spent £10.50 on admission, a programme, a beer and a chip “cob”. Ten Pounds Fifty. That wouldn’t even buy a programme these days at Wembley on Cup Final day. Ah yes, The Emirates FA Cup, two organisations that have pots of cash have come together. What interest do they really have in these early rounds? Zero really. 736 clubs enter the club, £30 million was the reported fee the FA have received yet the level of prize money on offer in the early rounds of the club has not changed since last season. Today’s winner would receive £1,925. The prize money on offer in the latter stages of the tournament means almost nothing to be big clubs. I’m sure that the £1.8m Man Utd won by beating Everton in last year’s final was a footnote in the bank account, whereas the prize money in the early rounds really means something for the little clubs.

So here is a suggestion. Reduce prize money for Premier and Football League clubs by 50% and use that as a pot for the losing teams in the Qualifying Rounds to soften any blow of elimination. Or perhaps use the money to fund a “kids go free” scheme in the cup for all Step 7 and below clubs?

So armed with food, drink and programme I took my seat on the concrete steps of the Arena, watching the teams warm up. To my right Mansfield’s substitutes and a man dressed as a bull peppered the reserve keeper with shots, with the Shiners subs tried to boot the ball as high in the air as possible. Ah yes, the South Normanton Athletic nickname. Up there with the best in my view.

The nickname ‘Shiners’ derives from the mid-1750s when South Normanton was at the heart of the ribbed stocking industry. The people involved in this craft worked long hours sitting at their windows on wooden stools, so much so that the backsides of their trousers became very shiny making them instantly recognisable as coming from the South Normanton area; since then local people have been referred to as ‘Shiners’. Not my words, but those of Wikipedia so it must be true.

AFC Mansfield 2 South Normanton Athletic 0 – The Forest Town Arena – Saturday 20th August 2016
They were certainly dancing in the streets of Forest Town after AFC Mansfield won their first ever FA Cup tie, easily beating the conditions and The Shiners thanks to two second half goals from Gary Bradshaw and earning a big cheque for £1,925 in the process. Wouldn’t it be more fun if at the end of the game they got a small FA Cup (one that gets bigger depending on the round you are in) and a cheque (again getting bigger in size depending on the round) presented on the pitch? They could even have someone by the side of the pitch engraving their name in the trophy, just like at Wembley, but perhaps using a compass or a large safety-pin.

The strong wind caused both teams issues but it was the home side that always looked the more comfortable as they created a number of first half chances but a combination of the bobbly pitch, the strong wind and comical attacking somehow kept the game goal less. The club offer a strange twist on the golden goal where you can buy two tickets, one for each half. The chap next to me saw his luck wasn’t in when he drew minute 1 and 90. I was relatively happy with my 73rd minute ticket though.

The Welfare Club was relatively full as the crowd ventured in a half-time to escape the rain. Sky Sports on the TV’s, decent bar and a couple of snooker tables. Years ago the locals would have been protecting their pints of mild. Today it was all bottles of rosé in ice buckets on the tables and talk of The Great British Bake Off.

The second half saw the home side take a more direct approach, with the wind behind them. Finally the deadlock was broken when striker Gary Bradshaw poked home in what I thought was the 73rd minute. Alas, the official time-keeper ruled me a minute out. My career record of winning the golden goal still stands at one (Cray Wanderers v Lewes in April 2012 if you ask). The South Normanton manager was not impressed with his defence, nor the officials a few minutes later when his centre midfielder was flagged offside. It seemed that he had done his homework and was quoting chapter and verse on the new regulations to a bemused linesman. He was right too.

AFC Mansfield wrapped the game up with ten minutes to go as that man Bradshaw picked up on sloppy defending and rounded the keeper to slot into an empty net. The Shiners would be heading back to Derbyshire empty-handed whilst The Bulls would be able to look forward to another home tie in two weeks time as they would be hosting Stratford Town.

The magic of the FA Cup had come to Forest Town. It’s just a shame that the powers that be still aren’t taking the qualifying rounds seriously. Good luck to AFC Mansfield and let’s hope that the prize money they earn will help them build on and off the pitch.

August 20, 2016 by stuartnoel - 0 comments

Economic Theory Explained by Football – 16. The Moral Hazard

Back by popular demand (well, at least from one person) for the new season is the continuation of our series on trying to explain Economic Theory by applying the principals to football. The first in series 2 is concerning the Moral Hazard Theory and how a player’s behaviour changes once he has a new contract.

In the 2014 film The Big Short, the real reasons behind the start of the Global Economic Crisis were explored. To many of us, the years between 2007 and 2010 saw unprecedented financial pressure, driven by trusted establishments as well as our own need to budget based on our circumstances. Few people really understood how our boom had suddenly been the biggest bust in history, so the film aimed to explain what really happened, using examples such as chefs making fish stew or actress Selena Gomez playing poker to explain some of the more complex terms such as synthetic derivatives and the concept of sub-prime lending. Whilst these were good examples that helped us understand, it would have been much better if they would have used an example relating to the beautiful game.

Moral Hazard not Micky Hazard

The basic premise of the film and the core compelling event behind the Global Economic Crisis was that of Moral Hazard. The theory of the Moral Hazard is originally attributed by some back to the 17th century, but economists Allard Dembe and Leslie Boden created the current theory when trying to explain the situation of Winston Bogarde wasting away in Chelsea’s reserves*, happy to do the bare contractual minimum to earn his substantial weekly wage. The Moral Hazard Theory related to a situation where the behaviour of one person or party may change to the detriment of another after a transaction or contract has been completed. Insurance policies are a more conventional example where the insured party may take more risks knowing that there’s a financial safety net should things go wrong. But how did Dembe and Boden apply the theory to Non-League football?

For example, let’s say a Non-League club sign a promising centre forward on a year’s contract. The day after the ink dries on the contract the player damages his knee in a non-football related incident (such as falling off a table whilst dancing in a Crawley nightclub, drunk at 2am) but hides the injury until the first pre-season training session where he goes down in real pain after an innocuous challenge in the first minute of the practice match. The injury keeps the player out for the rest of the season. The club would be liable to continue to pay his wages despite having no liability in terms of the injury because the player’s behaviour changed once the security of the contract had been completed. Would he have still claimed he was injured in pre-season training if he wasn’t under contract? Probably not.

The reason why is that the Moral Hazard Theory works under the premise of information asymmetry, in other words where one party in the transaction having more information and acts or behaves inappropriately than the other party, normally the one who has to pay the consequences of the risk, which in the above example is the player knowing about his injury but not revealing it to the club.

So that is the Moral Theory and how it influences our thinking today and in the future.

*Probably

July 30, 2016 by stuartnoel - 1 Comment

The tide has turned

Michelle: What do you prefer? Astroturf or grass?
Rodney: I don’t know, I’ve never smoked AstroTurf

It’s been almost ten years since I started The Ball is Round. Back in 2006 I was at my Football Tourist peak, dashing off to somewhere new almost every other week. European football was opening up for us all with the Internet giving us the answers to the important questions about local public transport and ticket buying procedures, whilst budget airlines seemed to be falling over themselves to open up more exotic routes. It was certainly the golden age to be a fan of football rather than just being a football fan.

Today the mystery and glamour of the Eternal Derby (take your pick between Rome, Belgrade and Sarajevo) has been well and truly debunked thanks to Social Media. We’ve all stood on the Sud Tribune at the Westfalonstadion in Dortmund, right? Or been hit by a toilet brush as the Spakenburg derby. European football no longer holds any surprises.

So in some ways the purpose of The Ball is Round has diminished, or rather our objectives have been achieved. I hope that we’ve helped a few people discover there is more to life that Sky Sports and the sanitised Premier League. We’ve all grown a little bit older and when I meet the few bloggers who were still around a decade ago, we no longer talk about daily website hits or #FFs. Those who are still left write because they love to write not for any commercial gain.

My day to day work has become all-consuming. My writing has had to take on a more serious tone about intellectual property infringements (with the occasional slant towards football such as this white paper published this year) rather than the slant I have taken before on the beautiful game. Virtually all of my “golden generation” peers have quit or have severely reduced their output, beaten into submission by the need to cover every Premier League team/player/story from a “new angle”. The likes of Danny Last, Damon Threadgold, Kenny Legg (3 of the 5 who along with David Hartrick and I put together the 500 Reasons to Love Football website) and Andy Hudson have all given up their writing. I blame Leicester City – after their achievement last season there is nothing left to write about football.

My role at Lewes FC has also meant I have had to smooth the edges to some of the things I have written about in the past. Putting anything controversial into a blog could land me with a “bringing the game into disripute” charge by the FA.

So whilst the words may become further spaced out, I haven’t yet fully given up the ghost. Yesterday, for instance, saw Lewes travel to local rivals Eastbourne Borough, for a Pre-Season Friendly. One of the perks of being Chairman is you do get access to almost part of the game. So instead of a predictably mundane match report from our 2-0 defeat on Boro’s new 3G pitch (hence the classic quote at the start from “Go West My Son”, one of the first episodes of Only Fools and Horses), here’s a few “behind the scenes” pictures instead. If you are really interested in reading my match report then go wild here.

May 25, 2016 by stuartnoel - 0 comments

There’s only Three Ronaldo’s

Ronaldo was at Wembley on Sunday. No, not that preening Portuguese. But a ton of beef and a champion in his own right, and to give him his full name, Hawkesbury Ronaldo. The Hereford bull was paraded around the pitch at Wembley before the match between Hereford FC and Morpeth Town in the FA Vase final.

If you thought Leicester City’s winning the Premier League was the stuff of football dreams, a similar story was unfolding at the club in the town where I grew up and started watching football seriously.

Only seven years ago Hereford United even played in the same division as Leicester City. Go back even further and they were part of F.A. cup legend, when Ronnie Radford’s 30-yard rocket toppled first division Newcastle United in an Edgar Street replay and West Ham were grateful to escape from Hereford with a 0-0 draw.

But Hereford have had a history of financial difficulties in recent decades as they bounced from Conference into the Football League and then back down again. Matters came to a head when the club were taken over by a group of London businessmen who many thought had designs on the Edgar Street site as real estate rather than a viable football club. In June 2014 United were expelled from the Conference over unpaid debts , and in December 2014 were wound up at the High Court in London when director Andrew Lonsdale failed to produce a required £1million proof of funding – claiming he was stuck in traffic!

But the club has risen from the ashes of financial oblivion with a new name – Hereford FC- and a new identity. After all the turmoil a fresh start beckoned in the summer of 2015. The supporters club set about starting a new club and, with the backing of four local benefactors, they registered to play in the Midlands League, the ninth tier of the English game.

Their first season as phoenix club has been a remarkable tale of redemption and success. A squad had to be put together from scratch, but they won their league with 108 points and with the Herefordshire County Cup and Midland Football League Cup already in the display cabinet, the quadruple was on at Wembley.

Hereford were due to bring not only a one-ton bull but 20,000 supporters to the national stadium. From a low of around 100 spectators under the previous, despised owners, home attendances have risen to an average of nearly 3,000 this season. The attendance at the Vase semi-final against Salisbury in March was 4,683 – an increase of 300 on when Leicester were the 3-1 victors in League One back in 2009.

Which must beg the question, where have all those 20,000 fans come from. Many,no doubt, like me (who went en famille) part of the Hereford Diaspora.

The Southern League awaits next term, so they will be competing, not for the FA Vase, but the FA trophy, the final of which was played at the same venue later in the day.

Hereford FC (1) v Morpeth Town (4) – Wembley Stadium – Sunday 22nd May 2016
The match could not have started better for Hereford. Rob Purdie opened the scoring with a fine 25-yard strike after 78 seconds for the Midland League champions. It looked good for the team who went into the final on the back of a 22-match winning run. They could even have been three or four goals to the good, such was their dominance for the first half hour, but found Karl Dryden in the Morpeth goal a formidable barrier.

Enter Morpeth defender Chris Swailes to write another chapter in football’s fairytale season. At the age of 45, and two years after heart surgery, the defender became the oldest man to score at the new Wembley. Hereford’s goalkeeper misjudged a corner, and allowed the former Ipswich Town player to bundle the ball home in the 34th minute for an equaliser. Hereford heads fell, and when Luke Carr put Morpeth in front after only 42 seconds of the second period, from Sean Taylor’s cross, it was clearly game over.

The Midlanders ran out of steam and ideas. Taylor added a third in the 59th minute before substitute Shaun Bell scored a fourth in stoppage time to rub salt into the wound. Northern League Morpeth Town deservedly lifted the FA Vase for the first time in their history.

Perhaps Hereford should have tried to get their Ronaldo on to the pitch.

Mike Miles